Why Bernie Sanders Can't Win

By Rhiannon Winner on September 8, 2015

Let me begin by saying that I love Bernie Sanders. I’m wearing my “Bernie for president” shirt right now, as I type on my computer with a big “Bernie 2016″ sticker on it. Sanders will have my vote, because I believe in voting with my heart and conscience. Despite my admiration, I know that he doesn’t stand a chance against Hillary Clinton.

Sanders edges out Clinton in New Hampshire, and Clinton barely has a single-digit lead in Iowa. For Bernie’s supporters, this is big news, and an understandable source of excitement. But the United States is made of more than just New Hampshire and Iowa. While they are certainly important first stages, a victory in one or both of these states certainly doesn’t ensure that a candidate will secure the nomination.

The Clinton Machine’s Advantages

Nothing seems to be slowing down the Clinton Machine. The scandal surrounding Clinton’s private email server is barely making a dent in her approval ratings among Democrats. Sixty-one percent didn’t find the scandal important, and another twenty-one percent only found it “somewhat important.” If a major, current scandal is barely affecting any liberal voters, then former scandals (Benghazi, Whitewater, etc.) are unlikely to have any influence either. Clinton is far more moderate than Sanders, which makes her appealing to Democrats who fear Sanders is too far left to be electable. She is also pulling in significantly more money than Sanders, because the Vermonter refuses to accept any funds from PACs. Money makes the political world go ’round, and Clinton has raised nearly $68 million. That dwarfs Sanders’ $15 million.

In recent national polls, Clinton is snagging between 44-55% of the vote, while Sanders only has 20-26%. The average of 10 polls puts Clinton at 46% and Sanders at nearly 24%. That is certainly impressive for a socialist septuagenarian who barely anyone had heard of before his campaign announcement. Yet, if Sanders can’t win over a key part of the Democratic base, the game is over. Sanders may be wildly popular among progressives, and especially younger voters, but there’s one key part of the Democratic base he’s failing to win over: nonwhite voters.

Sanders’ struggle with nonwhite voters

It certainly isn’t for lack of trying. Sanders has desperately tried to win the favor of Black Lives Matter activists. He’s let them take the stage from him, spoken in favor of the movement, and done basically everything his campaign can think of to win their support. He has a long history of fighting for racial justice: Sanders was a part of the March on Washington in 1963. If he were still a student activist, chances are he might be a part of the Black Lives Matter movement himself. Despite all of his efforts and his track record, Clinton has an astounding 95% of the vote among nonwhite Democrats. He is making efforts to reach out to other nonwhite voters, but is hitting the same roadblocks. Sanders is either unheard of, or unsupported, in the nonwhite community. No matter how big of a splash he makes among young, white voters, he’s doomed if he can’t win over a sizeable chunk of the nonwhite vote.

This problem is clear as a day. Just show up at any of Sanders’ incredibly popular rallies, and you’ll notice a common trend. Although the trend is changing, most of the speakers who take the stage before Sanders are white. The crowds he draws are predominantly, nearly exclusively, white. According to pollster Paul Maslin, “The Bernie Sanders voter is still a Volvo-driving, financially comfortable liberal who is pretty much white.”

Politics is an unpredictable game, but there are still common themes we can observe. When a candidate can’t win over a huge chunk of their base, they’re doomed to fail. Unless a miracle occurs, we’re going to learn that Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee.

Is his candidacy meaningless?

It won’t all be for naught. Sanders’ popularity is forcing Clinton to lean more to the left, when she’d prefer to be more moderate. Sanders has secured roughly a quarter of the Democratic vote, and when Clinton takes on her Republican challenger, she’s going to need the support of Sanders’ fans. That means Clinton will have to stay left, and will probably choose a liberal running mate with a track record like Sanders’ to help draw in his followers.

If Clinton wins the White House, in a way, Sanders’ supporters have won too. We have a more left-leaning Clinton, and likely a Sanders-esque VP. Bernie Sanders will never be President of the United States, but he’s completely changed the game.

 

Information gathered from: The New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/election-2016-campaign-money-race.html and http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/25/us/politics/bernie-sanders-lags-hillary-clinton-in-introducing-himself-to-black-voters.html?_r=0), CBS News (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/iowa-poll-bernie-sanders-closing-in-on-hillary-clinton/), The Huffington Post (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary), and The Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/08/08/bernie-sanders-leaves-seattle-stage-after-event-disrupted-by-black-lives-matter-protesters/)

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